Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In recent months, Pegula has excelled in second serve performance, securing 44.19% of points, compared to Sabalenka's 39.53%. Could this vital stat tip the balance in Pegula's favor?
• Both players show strong second serve return stats, with Pegula slightly ahead at 49.39% over Sabalenka's 48.08%. Will this give Pegula an edge in return games?
• Analyzing breakout points, Pegula shows resilience by saving 53.66%, just ahead of Sabalenka's 52.37%. How crucial is the ability to save breakpoints in determining the winner?
• Sabalenka's recent performance is impressive, with an 83.54% win rate over the last year, clearly outshining Pegula's 69.12%. Does this make Sabalenka the obvious favorite?
• Hard courts favor Sabalenka (74% win rate) over Pegula (67%), suggesting an advantage for Sabalenka on this surface.
• In the last year, Sabalenka's experience at the Masters series with an 80.95% win rate suggests high-level match intensity, greatly exceeding Pegula's 58.62% at the same level.
• Head-to-head history shows Sabalenka dominant, claiming victory in 7 of their 9 matches. Will this psychological edge prove decisive?
• In deciding sets over the past year, Sabalenka has a better record, winning 61% compared to Pegula's 55%. Could this trend continue?
• Pegula boasts a slightly superior breakpoint conversion rate of 35.04% versus Sabalenka's 31.53%, a potential game-changer in tight moments.
• Despite similar opponent quality over the past year, Sabalenka faced slightly stronger competition, with an average opponent rank of 46.85, offering her a tougher preparation for high-stakes matches.

Editorial Prediction (September 3, 2025, UTC):

As both players prepare to face off, their strengths and weaknesses become evident through their recent stats and historical performances. Pegula's solid second serve and return statistics suggest she could challenge Sabalenka's game effectively.

However, Sabalenka's impressive win record, especially on hard courts, coupled with her dominance in head-to-head encounters, positions her as a formidable opponent. Her experience at the Masters series and higher success rate in deciding sets indicate a readiness for high-pressure situations.

Considering all these factors, Sabalenka appears to have the upper hand. She is likely to leverage her strong win rates and experience, making her the predicted winner of this upcoming match.